If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Win Draw Loss method to your data. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly soccer betting forecasts.
The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.
Let’s look at a simple example of how you could apply this…
IF HOMEP > AWAYP AND HOMEP > DRAWP THEN
PREDICTION = “1”
ELSEIF AWAYP > HOMEP AND AWAYP > DRAWP THEN
PREDICTION = “2”
ELSEIF DRAWP > HOMEP AND DRAWP > AWAYP THEN
PREDICTION = “3”
ELSEIF HOMEP = DRAWP AND HOMEP > AWAYP THEN
PREDICTION = “1X”
ELSEIF AWAYP = DRAWP AND AWAYP > HOMEP THEN
PREDICTION = “X2″
ELSEIF HOMEP = DRAWP AND HOMEP = AWAYP THEN
PREDICTION = “X”
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This gives you a percentage probability for each of the three possible outcomes.
1. This could be for a whole season or you may wish to have a rolling time period, say the last six months for example.
Now let’s extend this to provide 1, X, 2, 1X, and X2 predictions…
. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league 1X2Monster also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games. By calculating the number of wins, draws and losses for both the home and away sides and then combining them it is possible to produce a statistical probability of the possible outcome of the game.
This means we now have a total vote count for each of the three possible outcomes.
Next we can deduce our final 1, X, 2, 1X, and X2 predictions based on the voting as follows;
Here is how a typical calculation is made…
Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. Experimenting with threshold values and durations will let you home in on the best settings for you.
IF HOMEWIN > HOMETHRESHOLD THEN
HOMEP = HOMEP + 3
DRAWP = DRAWP + 1
AWAYP = AWAYP + 1
Now we compare each of the calculated probabilities against our thresholds to arrive at a vote count for each outcome;
Improve Your Soccer Betting is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and for overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer betting predictions.
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Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Win Draw Loss Method
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Then we initialise our voting counts for each method;
DRAWP = 0
HOMEP = 0
AWAYP = 0
(( HW + AL) * 100) / total number of matches
Now it’s your turn…
HW = number of home wins by home team
AL = number of away losses by away team
Once you have a percentage probability for each outcome a decision can be made on the most likely outcome.
Here are the basic rules…
HOMEWIN = ((HW + AL)*100)/TOTALGAMES
DRAW = ((HD+AD)*100)/TOTALGAMES
AWAYWIN = ((HL + AW)*100)/TOTALGAMES
First we set three thresholds;
TOTALGAMES = HW + HD + HL + AW + AD + AL
IF DRAW > DRAWTHRESHOLD THEN
DRAWP = DRAWP + 3
HOMEP = HOMEP + 1
AWAYP = AWAYP + 1
DRAWTHRESHOLD = 35%
AWAYTHRESHOLD = 45%
HOMETHRESHOLD = 55%
HW = number of home wins for home team
HD = number of draws for home team
HL = number of home losses for home team
AW = number of away wins for away team
AD = number of draws for away team
AL = number of away losses for away team
2. For example, the home win percentage is calculated as follows:
By: Grant Collier
Here is a list of all the articles in this series…
IF AWAYWIN > AWAYTHRESHOLD THEN
AWAYP = AWAYP + 3
HOMEP = HOMEP + 1
DRAWP = DRAWP + 1
In this article we will be describing the well known Win Draw Loss method.
First of all you would collect the data for a specified period of time and for each of the three possible outcomes, i.e.
To do this we can employ a simple voting system, here is how it works:
The Win, Draw, Loss method is very simple and takes into account the proportion of past wins, draws, and losses over a specified period of time. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. So, you could create better threshold values and decide to collect data over any period of time you like. The percentage probabilities for home wins, draws, and away wins are then made. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. For a specified period of time the number of wins, losses, and draws are counted for each side. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have been providing this kind of facility since 1999