“It is alleged that on 20 February 2016, the Norwich City forward placed a bet on the result, progress, conduct or any other aspect of, or occurrence in, a football match or competition in breach of FA Rule E8,” a statement said.
“Participants covered by the ban will be prohibited from betting, either directly or indirectly, on any football match or competition that takes place anywhere in the world,” the FA said at the time.
Stricter rules introduced two years ago apply to everyone involved in senior football in England.. LONDON Norwich City and Northern Ireland striker Kyle Lafferty has been charged with a betting offence, the Football Association said on Friday.
(Reporting by Steve Tongue, editing by Ed Osmond)
Lafferty, who has 54 international caps and played at Euro 2016, has until Aug
The FPI at 9.3 and MLE at 9.4 slightly agree, though it is a little concerning that they’re only clear underdogs in just four games (how they fare in the four pick ‘em games will tell the tale). The market hasn’t agreed, as the Falcons drifted all the way up to 100-1 before dipping back to 80-1 over Labor Day weekend. In addition, their top draft choice, Shaq Lawson, might be back from injury in November and second-rounder Reggie Ragland is already done for the season. However, we’ve clearly seen the high end of this Packers team over the previous two seasons as an offensive machine and a capable defense. Look for the Ravens to return to their physical ways with a chance to match any AFC contender. If you don’t mind giving up the insurance of a push on 7, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money, and even if they don’t live up to my lofty expectations, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a .500 team and get at least the 8 wins needed to cash this bet.
Minnesota Vikings (20-1)
Vital when handicapping over/under season wins is the schedule, and the Packers’ slate is relatively smooth sailing. Importantly, the Cardinals can move forward from last year. A potential Super Bowl game was promising last season before their collapse in Carolina to end the year after an impeccable 13-3 regular season. They don’t need to win them all to get over the total and, even if they don’t win them all, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they’ll be underdogs or pick ‘em.
New York Giants Chicago Bears New Orleans Saints Arizona Cardinals Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals (20-1)
The question lingers as to whether Rex and his brother Rob Ryan turn this defense around. However, it’s easy to flush last season down the drain and move forward with this rock-solid organization.
I originally had a lean on the Chiefs under 9 back in the spring, so I really like it now that it has been bet up to 9.5 (and 120 to boot!). The W/L/T that we used in our betting previews for each team and used CG Technology’s Week 1-16 lines to see how many times a team is expected to be favored has the Giants favored in only 8 games, so they would almost have to win all of those (plus any upsets) to get over 8.5.
I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out, and I expected the number to go higher if he signed. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold as the odds didn’t budge. They just need to keep doing what they’re doing in the regular season, and I don’t see too much of a falloff from the team that finished 12-4 a year ago. The Jets were 10-6 last year and had the No. In proper Ryan-like fashion, the Bills also led the NFL in penalties last year. Yes, the schedule lightens up after that, but Ryan might have one foot out the door.
Tuley: Teams I love (to bet on) Tuley: Teams I love (to fade) Tuley’s totals: Best over/under teams
Under the leadership of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have been a threat every season to reach the Super Bowl. Basically, it comes down to believing we’re much more likely to see 6 wins (and a winning ticket) as opposed to 8.
Offensively, the Cardinals continue to be sound at all levels.
Atlanta Falcons over 7 (-130)
Baltimore Ravens (15-1 to win AFC)
If only the Las Vegas oddsmakers would buy into the promises of Bills coach Rex Ryan. Nelson is back this season, while the signing of Jared Cook gives Rodgers another weapon.
. Ryan is known for his defensive prowess, but the Bills dropped from fourth in yards allowed in 2014 to 19th in 2015. Before last season, Harbaugh owned a 72-38 regular-season NFL record as head coach, plus 10-5 in the postseason. The first 10 games will test the mettle of Ryan & Co. In addition, they were minus-15 in turnovers and nine of their 11 losses were within eight points as seemingly nothing went right. After Philadelphia traded away Sam Bradford, this number has been raised to 8.5, and I believe that’s an over-adjustment — so I now like the under 8.5 (and ESPN’s Football Power Index and our Money Line Estimate agree as they’re still right around 8 wins). The loss of Tyrann Mathieu was devastating for this group late last season, as he works himself to 100 percent by this season’s end.
Atlanta Falcons (80-1)
New York Jets over 8 ( 150)
You have to believe that Sam Bradford puts them back on track, and you have to not worry about not pulling the trigger when you could have had 30-1 when Shaun Hill was expected to be the starter.
After Super Bowl 50, the Houston Texans were my choice for best value play out of the AFC at 40-1. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. Secondly, and ultimately the biggest hurdle, is they have to win three playoff games in a row (four if they don’t get a first-round bye), and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs and 0-4 with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. However, after ranking 12th in points per game and sixth in yards per play, expect the league to adjust and regression to occur.
AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets
The Giants’ over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer, and it was a pass for me. They jumped to 6-0 record before their bye week, outscoring the opposition 164-101. Their offensive line, receivers and quarterback certainly rank in the upper echelon of the NFL. ESPN’s Football Power Index has this total pushing with exactly 7 wins, but I like that the Saints are only projected to be favored in six games at CG Technology, plus the Money Line Estimate only adds up to 6.4 wins. Head coach Dan Quinn, who built the Seattle Seahawks’ defense before taking this job, obviously still has a lot of work to do with the defense, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. Importantly, the huge emergence of running back David Johnson is the catalyst to take the pressure off the deep passing game. The schedule is tough and front-weighted. They’ll most likely catch the Cowboys without Tony Romo. 6 overall draft choice, left tackle Ronnie Stanley. So, I actually think now that the value is on the over 8, especially at the current 150 price. If Prescott can keep Dallas in contention and Romo returns healthy, the 25-1 price could be an overlay — as long as Romo can stay healthy the rest of the way, which is asking a lot.
Note: I still like the Houston Texans over 8.5 (-120), but not as much as I did when I got over 8 over the summer (though it still takes 9 wins to cash), so that’s why it didn’t make my list of top “over” bets. 4 defense with Fitzpatrick leading an already-balanced offense that adds running back Matt Forte. They’ve fortified their defensive line with the additions of Chandler Jones and top draft choice Robert Nkemdiche to aid in the all-important NFL pressuring of the quarterback. Note that this offense actually led the league last year in three-and-outs at 28 percent.
Dallas Cowboys (25-1)
Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 ( 120)
If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), then I must love the over 7 at -130. Importantly, the key injured cogs from last year are back.
Arizona’s brilliant head coach Bruce Arians continues to preach it’s all about getting that ring on your finger, and his team is as well-rounded as any to deliver the title this season. The Cardinals are poised and motivated for the NFL title.
Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers loomed especially large the first six weeks of last season. We saw how they looked in their 5-0 start last season, when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looked unstoppable and Devonta Freeman emerged as a scoring machine — and they were the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. And while defenses can still win championships, like we saw last year with Denver, it’s not a necessity in today’s NFL.
After the schedules came out in April, I made the Saints’ under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under 7 even better, though the juice is heavy at -140. I still like them, but the “value” part isn’t quite there anymore at 14-1. Forever the extreme eternal optimist, Ryan’s Bills generally failed to deliver last season, especially on the defensive side of the football. They added defensive leader Eric Weddle to their defensive backfield, and were able to add the No. Yes, this is a tall win projection, but the Packers are a heavy hitter and the schedule is as soft as a pillow.
New Orleans Saints under 7 (-140)
The season is finally upon us. However, this team peaked early, and eventually the preseason loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson reared its ugly head along with subpar offensive line play. Unfortunately, they’ve lost the services of difference-maker Marcell Dareus for the first four games. Of course, there are two big obstacles for the Bengals: First, they really need to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and secure a first-round bye. ESPN Chalk’s NFL Vegas experts, Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning, combine to bring you the ultimate betting guide for 2016. Note the Cardinals struggled in both their red zone offense and defense last season, as this team is far too talented for those trends not to turn around. Note that with the top AFC teams expected down compared to the Cardinals, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks, the key is to bet the Ravens to win their conference.
New York Giants under 8.5 (-120)
Opening week last year, the Ravens lost defensive force and team leader? Terrell Suggs — and quite simply, it was all downhill from there. The Bears and Lions continue to erode, while the Vikings obviously lose some luster with the loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. They eventually placed 20 players on injured reserve, including eight projected starters — Suggs, Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith included. The better play now is Cincinnati at 20-1, as the Bengals have one of the best all-around teams with a balanced offense and a solid bend-but-don’t-break defense. They’re still the best value bet on the board in my opinion. Best future bets, season win total bets, teams to bet on and against — it’s all here in Chalk’s 2016 pro football betting guide. And finally, their road schedule is void of high-caliber competition in Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Philadelphia and their division rivals. They did lose defensive tackle Kyle Williams early in the season, but a defensive mastermind like Ryan should be capable of working around a key injury.
Buffalo Bills under 8 (-150)
Denver Broncos (25-1)
The Bills did thrive on the offensive side last season, as offensive coordinator Greg Roman did an incredible job with quarterback Tyrod Taylor & Co. Peyton Manning is gone, of course, but if Trevor Siemian can run the offense — which relied more on the running game last year anyway — the defense can carry this team far.
Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (EVEN)
Yes, there’s a trend here with finding value on teams with QB issues. Tony Romo got hurt again and the Cowboys’ odds were raised, but there is hope, as he’s projected to miss six to 10 weeks, and rookie Dak Prescott stepped up in the preseason. with trips to Baltimore, New England, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle and Cincinnati, while garnering the Jets, Arizona and New England at home. I don’t believe the Jets can catch the Patriots, but for this bet they just need to finish over .500 again.
It’s not often you get 25-1 on the defending champions. Obviously we can’t have the Chiefs going on another 10-game winning streak, but that was a bit of a fluke, and no one’s going to be looking past them this year.
Green Bay Packers over 10.5 (-170)
After Super Bowl 50, I made the Falcons my best value bet for Super Bowl LI at 40-1. But the talent is there to take a flier.
Other potential future-book plays
Again, we don’t need the Bengals to erase their playoff demons to cash this bet
Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites.
9. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”
And where does all that money go?
While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”
So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.
“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”
1. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers.
5. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”
“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”
Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can.
“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl.
So, how much should you bet a game?
Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”
Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day.
But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football.
“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”
Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says.
Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.
. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. “Teams play inspired ball at home. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet.
2. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week.
“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,'” Konik says. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”
Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.
“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record.
Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”
Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned.
7. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”
And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”
10. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”
“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”
Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.
“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains.
However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”
3. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”
So, how much are we gambling each football season?
“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.
8. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart